My Ricky Williams Blog

Our Football insiders for NFL Picks report that the Miami Dolphins are truly a team on the up rise and one of the NFL teams to watch for the 2010 NFL season. The Miami Dolphins ran an unconventional wildcat offense last year that no one in the league could solve as they had one of the NFL's best rushing attacks ranked 4th in 2009. With a solid rushing attack, the Dolphins will look to Chad Henne who was named the starter by default when Chad Pennington was injured to be their quarterback of the future.

Chad Henne went 7-7 as a starter while throwing 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his 1st year as a starter for the Dolphins who were ranked 20th in passing. The Dolphins made one of the biggest impact moves on offense this off season by getting receiver Brandon Marshall from the Denver Broncos who comes to Miami catching at least 100 passes per season the last three years while scoring 23 touchdowns during that span. Marshall makes Miami's offense a threat on every down with the combination of Ricky Williams who rushed for 1,121 yards and Ronnie Brown who is coming back from a foot injury in the 2009 season.

The Dolphin defense struggled last year against the pass and the rush ranked 22nd in total yards. Their pass defense was a disaster ranked 29th in the league which caused the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni and in with their new coordinator Mike Nolan. The Dolphins made an overall of changes on this side of the ball getting rid of cornerback Will Allen and safety Gibril Wilson as they will rely on second year cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith to take over a secondary that allowed a total of 57 completions of 20 yards or more. Miami was ranked 18th against the run and may suffer early in the season without nose tackle Jason Ferguson who was suspended for the first eight games although new outside linebacker Karlos Dansby should close some holes for their rush defense.

The Dolphins have high expectations for Henne who showed signs of being a top flight NFL quarterback and if he can capitalize on his experience, this offense has the weapons to control the ball and score a lot of points. The question will still be with this soft Miami defense but with the changes made and new offensive coordinator Mike Nolan, they should improve immensely. The Dolphins will be in a three headed race in the tough AFC East Conference with the Patriots and Jets. Our Football experts for NFL picks predict that after surviving a 7-9 season playing a first year starter who was thrown into the fire, there is no reason the Dolphins shouldn't make the playoffs in 2010 if the stay healthy.

Go to http://www.jrtips.com/ to get all your winning NFL Picks and Football Betting Picks for the 2010 season.

The Miami Dolphins came out of nowhere in 2009 to win the AFC East before succumbing to the Baltimore Ravens in the first roundof the playoffs. The two main factors for the dramatic turnaroundnd rest with the acquisition of QB Chad Pennington who was released by the NY Jets after the team signed Brett Favre and the rise of the Wildcat formation that proved to catch several team (ie New England) off guard. In terms of fantasy though the Dolphins really don't have much in the way of players who fantasy owners would feel comfortable starting week in and week out. Let's dissect Miami in terms of fantasy potential heading into 2009.

After building a foundation along the offensive anddefensive lines in last year's draft, the Dolphins added to the framework with more skill position players on the second day of the 2009 NFL Draft. That was a good move because the Dolphins have very few play makers on the offensive side of the ball. Chad Pennington is back for another year but Chad Henne appears to be the future QB for the team. Even Pennington in his hey day with the Jets was really nothing more than a number 2 QB or someone that you may play based on the match ups.

So, needless to say don't be surprised if Pennington goes undrafted in most 12 team leagues this summer. Obviously, Henne bears no fantasy value at this point either. The only QB on Miami's roster that might be worth taking a very late round flier on is former WV QB Pat White with whom the Dolphins selected in the 2nd round. I doubt highly that White will be playing any QB this year and I am assuming the Dolphins drafted him specifically for the Wildcat which was so successful last year. This would be perfect for White andhe would be an upgrade over Ronnie Brown in that capacity. White, would represent the only Dolphin QB that I may consider in the late late rounds of my draft this summer.

Miami's running game was fairly decent in 2009 as Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 1575 rushing with a 4.2 yards per carry. There lies the problem though in terms of fantasy. If you read my column "Draft Running Backs Early: Buyer Beware" this is exactly what I am talking about. While the RB by committee is advantageous to incorporate in the NFL it represents a fantasy owners' worst nightmare. I personally drafted 420 Ricky last year and to be perfectly honest with you I thought he would rush for over 1000 yards because I didn't think Brown's health would make it through a whole season thus giving Williams the majority of the carries. Needless to say I was wrong mainly because Browns knee held up better than I thought it would. Don't expect anything special out of either of these guys in 2009 either. The committee will continue and to make matters worse at least half of Brown's 10 rushing TD's came in the Wildcat formation and with the inclusion of White into the mix Brown's role in the Wildcat is expected to decrease. Treat Brown as a number 3 RB or a Flex start and Williams as a reserve worth a late round pick in most leagues.

The receiving corps for Miami is worse that its running game in terms of fantasy potential. At this point the only consistent receive threat on the Dolphins lies with TE Anthony Fasano. 2008 saw Fasano catch 34 balls for 454 yards but 7 TD's. That is an outstanding TD total for an NFL TE and Fasano clearly became the go to guy for Pennington as the season wore on. I don't believe that Fasano was a fluke and with Pennington coming back for a 2nd year there is no reason to think that he can't be good for between 5-6 TD's this year. Consider Fasano a low end number 1 TE or at worst a great number 2 TE.

Although, improving Ted Ginn Jr. has not come close to living up to his potential. Moreover, Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo are nothing more than emergency stop gaps and if you are relying on either of them to produce for you consistently chances are your season will be ending early. Miami drafted Patrick Turner out of USC and Brian Hartline out of The Ohio State University to help solidify the receiving corps. After breakout 2008 campaign and subsequent impressive Senior Bowl scouts the Dolphins are high on Turner. At 6'5" he gives the Dolphins a big target something that the team has been lacking. Look for both Turner and Hartline to make the team but neither are warrant being drafted this summer in leagues with 12 or less teams. In larger leagues then maybe as a late round flier but not much more than that. As for Ginn and Camarillo treat them both as late round reserves until they start to produce quality fantasy points on a consistent basis.

Dan Carpenter converted on all 40 of his PAT attempts and was 21-25 on FG's making him a reliable fantasy option heading into 2009. Ginn makes the DST interesting but still not a unit at this point is worthy of playing every week especially seeing as though they have 4 games agains T.O. and Randy Moss. In summary, with the exception of Carpenter and Fasano I wouldn't rush out to draft many Dolphins for your fantasy roster for the upcoming season. Next up tomorrow: The New York Jets.

Chris Limburg is the fanatical purveyor of Gothicfootball.com: A Oakland Raider/fantasy football blog that provides commentary on everything that is the NFL and fantasy football. Visit today at: [http://www.gothicfootball.com]

A general rule in gambling is to beware of the Trendy Team. The public usually gets it in its mind that this team or that team is going to have a "breakout" year or be a "sleeper" this season. The trouble is, when everyone thinks that about a crew they're no longer a "sleeper". They're shackled by the heavy, cold steel grip of expectations.

That, and The Public is usually wrong.

That's where we're at with Miami. They ran off six consecutive wins to end 2005, made a few high-profile moves in the offseason, and are now the sheik pick to come out of the AFC East. Hype is the kiss of death. But to be honest with you, there may be some merit to all of this.

The acquisition of Dante Culpepper gives the Dolphins offense a leader that they haven't had since some Marino guy took his Isotoners and went home. His ability to consistently throw the deep ball should reenergize the careers of Chris Chambers and Marty Booker. Also, the best defense can be a good offense.

However, there are karma concerns. Ricky Williams was banished to Canada. Miami signed career underachievers L.J. Shelton, Dan Wilkinson and Will Allen. There's the awkward Jason Taylor-Zach Thomas divorce thing (they're not divorcing each other, but Taylor is separating from Thomas' sister). Culpepper didn't exactly leave Minnesota under the best of circumstances, and he wasn't Mr. Reliable when he was there.

All in all, this is a tough team to read. The talent is there, but with some volatile personalities and inconsistent performers decorating the roster you have to wonder how hard you can press the Dolphins. It will be a read-and-react situation. And don't be surprised if they pulled the classic Start With a Bang, Finish With a Whimper that Miami is known for.

Here's Doc's 2006 Miami Dolphins Preview:

2005 Record: 9-7 (5-3 home, 4-4 road)

2005 Rankings: 14th offense (16th pass, 12th rush); 18th defense (20th pass, 17th rush)

2005 Against the Spread: 7-9 (3-5 home, 4-4 road); 8-8 vs. total (5-3 h, 3-5 r)

2006 Odds: 22/1 to win SB, 11/1 to win AFC, 2/1 to win AFC East, 9.0 wins O/U

2006 Strength of Schedule: 27th (.469 opp. win %)

Key stat: Defensively, the Fins allowed just 3.7 yards per carry (7th in the league). Offensively they managed 4.3 yards per rush (8th in the league).

Returning starters: 17 (8 offense, 9 defense)

Key acquisitions: Daunte Culpepper, QB (from Minn.); Will Allen, CB (from NYG); Jason Allen, CB (draft); L.J. Shelton, OT (from Cleve.); Fred Beasley, FB (from S.F.); Joey Harrington, QB (from Detroit); Kelly Campbell, WR (from Minn.); Dan Wilkinson, DT (from Detroit)

Key departures: Ricky Williams, RB; David Boston, WR; Reggie Howard, CB; Sam Madison, CB; Tebucky Jones, S; Stockar McDougle, OT; Lance Schulters, S; Junior Seau, LB.

Offense: The tools are in place, but now they have to hope that Culpepper can be the straw that stirs the drink. Ronnie Brown needs to stay healthy, and both Chambers and Booker need to step up. The line made tremendous strides last season, and will now be charged with protecting Culpepper's knee. A lot of that responsibility falls on the shoulders of Shelton, who has a million-dollar body and a 10-cent head. They had the eighth-worst third-down conversion rate last year (35.1 percent) which helped contribute to their No. 30 time of possession ranking.

Defense: The Miami defense played better than its ranking last year. Their 49 sacks were second best in the league, and they were No. 7 against the run in terms of yards per carry against (3.7). However, the top eight defensive lineman in their rotation average 33 years old. I guess the good news is that there are eight of them. They lost both starting corners, but fortunately Miami doesn't face many pass-happy teams this year. A lot falls on the health of Thomas in the middle because they have little depth at LB. That's also why it's so important for Channing Crowder to make an impact.

X-factor: Culpepper. Can the knee hold up? If not, I think Joey Harrington is a great insurance policy. However, if they want to have a special year it will be on the arm, er, knee of Culpepper.

Outlook: I'm torn on the Dolphins. They've received a lot of hype, and I see a lot of potential landmines, but I did pick them to win the division. I don't like Culpepper. I've never liked him. And their defense is old. But honestly, this pick reflects the respect that I have for Nick Saban. We will see.

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